By Abdulbaqi Aliyu Yari
With elections just 5 months away , the chances of President Goodluck Jonathan returning in 2015 are becoming more and more clearer. This is because, up to now, no formidable opposition has been put in place to defeat PDP come 2015. While I am not a lawyer, but I am fully aware of the fact that section 137 (1) b has explicitly stated 8 years as the maximum years a person can serve as the President of Nigeria. Shall in case the court later after hearings and every thing allowed the president to stand in the elections, then he may have a return come 2015.
The major opposition party is yet to chose either consensus or through election the person to fly its flag in 2015. Among all those seeking for the party’s Presidential candidacy, only General Muhammad Buhari can make a very good show in 2015. Besides, others will only ridicule the party with the exception of 2 that may do something but not tangible. Despite the fact that currently, people of Nigeria are not happy with 15 years of PDP rule. More so, President Jonathan popularity may be at all times low now. With all the insecurity and disappearance of billions of dollars, Nigerians are really unhappy with the development as many see the leader as weak. But still, for for those that are aggrieved with Jonathan, if Buhari did not emerge as the APC candidate, the consider Jonathan back in 2015 as he is still a force to reckon with. Even with Genaral Muhammad Buhari, President Jonathan may still come back as some elements within the opposition are not up to seeing the success of the party or simply because of corruption they will compromise.
Politics is a game of numbers, strong campaign, popularity, incumbency, determination and willingness to succeed and win elections. Many of these factors are right inside the hands of Mr President. So for anybody to wrestle power from him, they need to have a critically studied workable plan to unseat Jonathan. Even in the so called developed countries, the power of the incumbency is a major plus advantage to serving Presidents that want to return after election. Never in Africa a serving President contested an election and was defeated and accepted the election as free and fair. We all saw it what happened with Lauren Gbagbo even after been declared defeated, he still holds power and nearly caused a civil war.
Another reason why Mr. President may return is the artificial divisions that existed in Nigeria. Religious, sectional and ethnic divisions among Nigerians will be another advantage factor for Jonathan. Even in the North, he will definitely have some states, while the last elections according to the results, General Buhari did not have a single vote in some South – south states. Mr. President has established Nigerian institutions. Even though he has been promising free and fair elections, but still the MDAs are answerable to him. That is a major factor. The expensive campaign by the President and his party may win the election for the President. Just recently, over 8 thousand campaign groups were screened and registered for President Jonathan. Those groups will be of help to him when the court (law) allowed him to stand in 2015.
Finally, if the remaining 5 months can be fully utilized using all means available and necessary by the President, then his popularity may improve and Nigerians may approve his return and rate him well. Because he is still the President. All this country’s resources are in his hands. Improvement in power supply, employment, transparency , accountability, sincerity, education, Agriculture, finance and above all security of lives and properties, if the above and a lot other can be improve by Jonathan then he will find his return to the Aso villa come 2015.
Comrade Abdulbaqi Aliyu Jari wrote in from Katsina