By Etuka Sunday
National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday said that the consumer price index, (CPI) which measures inflation increased by 11.24 percent (year-on-year) in September 2019.
This is 0.22 percent points higher than the rate recorded in August 2019 (11.02) percent.
The increase is attributable to the closure of border by the Federal Government in August 20, 2019.
Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index.
On month-on-month basis, the Headline index increased by 1.04 percent in September 2019, this is 0.05 percent rate higher than the rate recorded in August 2019 (0.99) percent.
The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending September 2019 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.268 percent, showing 0.003 percent point from 11.271 percent recorded in August 2019.
Recall, in August 2019, CPI increased by 11.02 percent (year-on-year). This is 0.06 percent points lower than the rate recorded in July 2019 (11.08) percent.
Accordingly, disinflation continued in August 2019 despite several pronouncements regarding restrictions on the import of some food items, minimum wage and the recent border closures.
It is important to note that with respect to the latter, the border was only closed 20 August 2019 with only 11 days of 31days for any significant impact to be felt either way on prices.
The inflation rate is also the average prices for the whole month and not only the price of goods and services in the last few days of the month.
Furthermore, the harvest season and existing weak consumer demand and their natural effect to slow down food and other prices will also play a major role in determining the direction of inflation.